Douglas Milewski (dacuteturtle) wrote,
Douglas Milewski
dacuteturtle

A little more sea level information

A little sea-level info from New Scientist

Meier and Dyurgerov's new range is much higher, at between 20 and 46 cm, and they say it could be even greater. Combined with the IPCC's estimate for sea level rise caused by other processes, such as ocean warming, of 11 to 43 cm, the total 21st century rise could be as much as 89 cm.

"These estimates in sea-level rise may seem small, but a 30 cm rise in sea level will typically cause a retreat of shoreline of 30 metres. This would have substantial social and economic impacts," Meier says. But he admits: "We are still very data poor. This is the best we can do at the moment."


As you can see, my game of playing with a 25m sea level rise was considerably off the mark of what the pros think will happen.

On the other hand.

If completely melted, the Greenland ice sheet would add 25 feet to overall sea level and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would raise it by 16 feet — enough to swamp most of Florida, Bangladesh and New York City’s Manhattan island.

Those folks think that 40 feet is a worst-case scenario. Hmm. I think I switch 25 feet for 25 meters in there somewhere. Damned conversions.

I found some elevation maps of 0-1.5m, 1.5-3.5+, and 3.5m+. Once can then assume that this model predicts a 1.5m rise in sea level, leaving the next 2m vulnerable to tide and storm. DC and Baltimore are virtually uneffect by this model, although a chunk of land on the eastern shore would go under. The Outer Bank and the eastern Carolina swamplands are going under along with the southern tip of Florida. New Orleans is doomed, unless they make it into a Netherlands.

So, for the most part, the US won't feel this this very hard for a while. The east coast cities are mostly well above sea level. The same is true of the west coast cities. Will be people be affected? Sure, but for the most part, not quickly. There will be change, but nature does that pretty well.

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